United Overseas Bank is out with their latest weekly look at the Forex market
EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.1330/1.1495 range.
We have held a neutral view for more than 2 weeks and there are no signs that the current consolidation phase is about to end soon.
In other words, we continue to expect this pair to trade between 1.1330 and 1.1495 for now.
GBP/USD: Neutral: Still neutral but downside risk has increased. The downside risk is still intact but GBP has to break clearly below the major 1.4000 support before further sustained weakness can be expected.
Only a move back above 1.4190/95 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back could extend lower to 0.7475/80.
Despite the strong short-term rebound end of last week, we still think the current pull-back from the late March high of 0.7723 has room to extend lower to test 0.7475/80 (at this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected).
The strong resistance at 0.7635 is likely strong enough to cap any further short-term recovery, at least for the next 1 to 2 days.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range.
There is not much to add as we continue to hold a neutral NZD view and expect this pair to trade in a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range.
USD/JPY: Bearish: Next significant support at 106.50.
As indicated last Friday, the next significant support for USD is much further down at 106.50. In view of the rapid and extended sharp drop recently, we feel that the odds for a move to 106.50 are not high.
That said, the outlook for USD/JPY is still bearish as long as the pair stays below 109.60.
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