Latest data released by Markit/CIPS - 1 October 2021
The preliminary report can be found here. A slight upwards revision to the initial estimate but it is still weaker than August, reaffirming a slowdown in growth conditions as supply bottlenecks and labour shortages weigh on overall activity. Markit notes that:
"The September PMI highlights the risk of the UK descending towards a bout of 'stagflation', as growth of manufacturing output and new orders eased sharply while input costs and selling prices continued to surge higher.
"Companies are facing a growing list of headwinds, which includes declining new export orders, component shortages, delays to air, land and sea freight, staff shortages exacerbated by COVID-19 illnesses, Brexit disruptions, sharply rising costs and now fuel shortages.
"Production growth is severely impacted by the ongoing strain across supply chains and, with demand far exceeding supply, the inevitable result has been higher prices, which will ultimately hurt the pockets of consumers.
"The jobs market is also experiencing slower growth, as firms experience labour shortages and difficulties recruiting required skills. With little sign of resolution to these issues, manufacturers, especially smaller firms with lower market power or capacity flexibility, will continue to be buffeted by these headwinds for the foreseeable future, hinting at a tough autumn and winter ahead for many firms."
