First quarter economic grown, advance reading, is due today from the UK today, Friday 27 April 2018, at 1230GMT
- expected +0.3% q/q, peioe +0.4%
- expected +1.4% y/y, same as the prior of +.4% y/y
Previews via:
Barclays:
- We highlight the risk of a temporary weather-related downside surprise to our Q1 GDP forecast of 0.3% q/q. Any negative drag is likely to be unwound in the coming months.
Citi:
- Cold weather and international trade weakness are likely to have weighed on output growth. Thus risks are tilted to the downside vs the upside. Construction looks set to be the weakest GDP component
Danske Bank:
- According to indicators, GDP growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4 17, the question is more by how much.
- While the PMIs suggest GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3%, the NIESR GDP estimate is as low as 0.2%. We estimate GDP growth was 0.25%, implying an annual growth rate of 1.4% y/y (don't be surprised if it is only 1.3%), which is among the lowest in the advanced economies.
- Looking at real wage growth and business investments' intention, it is difficult to see a scenario with much higher GDP growth in the UK this year despite the political agreement on transition.
Nomura:
- We forecast 0.3% q-o-q GDP growth in the initial Q1 print.
- As usual, there is no detail on the expenditure components in the first estimate - the numbers are constructed primarily from the output side of the accounts. Because the initial print is made up of only 40% of the information used for the final estimate of GDP, it can be subject to sizeable future revisions.
