UK wages and jobs data now released 12 July
- 2.1% prev
- weekly earnings ex bonus 3mth/year 2.0% vs 1.9% exp vs 1.8% prev up from 1.7%
- claimant count rate 2.3% as prev
- jobless claims change 6.0k vs 7.5k prev up from 7.3k
- employment change 3mth/3mth 175k vs 120k exp vs 109k prev
- total 1.49mln
- unemployment rate 4.5% vs 4.6% exp/prev
GBPUSD up to test 1.2865 and EURGPB posting 0.8910 on the generally better than expected data . Ave earnings still worse than previous though even if jobs data gives some comfort.
Say the ONS:
- total pay (real) annual growth rate now -0.7%, lowest since 3M to Aug 2014 (-1.0%)
- timing effect of bonuses partly to blame for lower earnings
- unemployment rate now at 4.5%, lowest since Spring/Summer 1975
- public sector employment 20k down on same time a year-ago; lowest since June 1999
- inactivity rate was 21.5%, down from 21.7% a year-ago and joint lowest on record
Full report here
Now we have to see whether we get a second wave or fade, but I'll back the latter. EURGBP supply might help temper GBPUSD losses though.
UK average weekly earninngs
