Results of a BBC snap survey of economists published a few hours ago 4 Sept
- most economists surveyed do not expect UK interest rates to rise until 2019 despite inflation remaining above target
- most of those surveyed think the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be reluctant to raise rates during Brexit negotiations
Stuart Green, of Santander Global Corporate said he does not expect a rate hike to happen before 2019.
"We believe that policymakers will be reluctant to tighten monetary policy until greater clarity emerges around the UK's post-EU trading framework, and our expectation of declining inflation through 2018 should also reduce the pressure for an interest rate rise"
Others expect it to be even longer, with economists at Morgan Stanley not expecting any movement until March 2019 at the earliest, with Andrew Goodwin at Oxford Economics suggesting it would not happen until Q3 2019
Similarly, Fabrice Montagne, at Barclays, expects rates to stay on hold until "at least 2019".
On the other side of the fence though there are those who say that BOE will raise rates sooner. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at the EY ITEM Club, said he had one increase, to 0.5%, pencilled in for late 2018 but added:
"I would not be at all surprised if it was delayed until 2019."
Michael Lee, at Cambridge Econometrics, expects a rise to come in either Q2/Q3 2018 as he thinks inflation will stay above the Bank's 2% target for the next two to three years.
Philip Rush, at Heteronomica, is more specific, settling on May 2018.
The one economist is George Buckley at Nomura, who expects the MPC to jump in November.
The BBC has more here.
FWIW I stand by my long held view that I don't see a rate hike anytime soon.
Meanwhile GBPUSD trawling around 1.2950 after failing at 1.3000 on Friday but off it's GBPJPY-led fall to 1.2929 at the start of Asian trading.
GBPJPY - Mind the gap
