File this away for a little later, headline, core, retail CPI data due at 0930 GMT
This via RBC:
- Despite a jump in petrol prices on the month, we only see CPI inflation holding steady at 3.0% y/y in November, in what could well be the peak in this cycle.
- After last month's downside surprise, our latest profile means that inflation wouldn't drift into the territory of letter-writing more than one percentage point above the 2% target.
- Nevertheless, inflation is set to remain above 2% throughout 2018.
- For RPI we also see no change this time, so another 4.0% y/y outturn, and for CPIH 2.8% y/y is expected.
- If CPI does surprise to the upside and require Governor Carney to write an open letter explaining the overshoot, it should be published along the MPC minutes on Thursday.
