The UK government releases its analysis of Brexit scenarios
- Government modelling is based on impact in 15 years' time
- May's modeled plan is better than a regular free trade agreement
- But is worse than the UK choosing to stay in the EEA
- Says that Chequers plan - which the EU rejects - has the least impact on GDP
- No-deal Brexit would mean economy is 7.7% smaller in 15 years' time
Take these assumptions and forecasts with a pinch of salt. I reckon it's intentionally set out to be over a 15-year period because there is no real logic or qualifiable standard in setting out an immediate impact analysis on the economy. The modelling above assumes that there will be no changes to migration rules and non-tariff barriers, which is a pretty big factor to keep constant.
The BOE is set to release their take on things later at 1630 GMT.
