What to expect for the labour market reports
RBC:
In recent weeks we've highlighted that the latest survey data is pointing to a souring of hiring intentions amongst firms as the combination of
- a weakening external environment
- and Brexit uncertainties
take their toll.
That won't be showing up in the official data just yet. This week's labour market report from the ONS only takes us up to the end of December and another healthy employment gain after last month's +141k looks on the cards.
That should see the unemployment rate hold at 4%. Despite that, there could be a dip in wage growth this month with base effects seeing a slowing in regular pay (i.e., excluding bonuses) to 3.2% 3m/yr.
Daiwa:
- expected to show modest employment growth in the three months to December to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4%
- Nevertheless, wage growth is likely to remain close to November's increase of 3.4%3M/Y, which was the strongest in more than a decade
