Labour market report for Brexit land!
Previews:
Daiwa:
- the latest labour market data should reveal that real wages continued to rebound in April, albeit at a subdued pace, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.
Barclays:
- We expect ILO unemployment to increase again in April (+15K) driven by the fastest increase in the claimant count since 2011 as well as dwindling employment surveys. This should be enough to push unemployment up by 0.1pp to 4.3%.
- We expect yearly headline and core earnings growth to be weighed down by negative base effects and to move sideways in April (respectively 2.6%3m/y and 2.9%3m/y unchanged from previous)
RBC:
- Even though there have been a number of large surprises to the upside in the employment data over the last six months, it will be very difficult for gains in employment to match last month's very strong +197k 3/3m and a slowdown on this occasion shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. For the unemployment rate, we expect it to remain at 4.2% for a third consecutive month, with the rise in the monthly unemployment rate to 4.4% in March likely to preclude a further fall in the 3m average measure on this occasion.
- As ever, average wages will be the more closely watched measure, but on this occasion we don't expect major changes and look for the excluding bonus measure to remain unchanged at 2.9% 3m/yr. For the including bonus measure, however, we expect a slight tick down to 2.5% 3m/yr mainly due to base effects.
