Latest data released by ONS - 12 June 2018
- Prior +2.6%
- Earnings ex-bonus +2.8% vs +2.9% expected
- Prior +2.9%
- ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.2% expected
- Prior 4.2%
- Employment change 146k vs 120k expected
- Prior 197k
- May jobless claims change -7.7k vs 31.2k prior
- Claimant count rate 2.5% vs 2.5% prior
The headline figure meets expectations, but the ex-bonus reading is below estimate. Sterling a little lower as a result, but it's not a bad reading by any means at first glance. The employment change is a surprise positive.
According to ONS, in real terms the average weekly earnings is +0.1% in the 3 months to April 2018. That's a bit of a positive as real wages continue to barely hold up in positive territory. Other than that, a slight slowdown in the wage growth as it falls from +2.6% to +2.5% - along with the ex-bonus also - is probably the key takeaway.
But as always with this report, it needs to be put into context with tomorrow's inflation report for a clearer picture as to the direction of where real wages may be heading.
GBP/USD falling to a low of 1.3383 upon release but has since bounced back to 1.3413 currently.
