–UK Construction Q1 Output -4.0% q/q: Up 3.6% y/y
–UK Mar Construction Output Up 16.3% m/m; Up 0.1% y/y
–UK Construction Adds Less Than 0.1pp to 1st Estimate Q1 GDP
–UK Q4 Construction Output Revised Down To -2.7% q/q
LONDON (MNI) – First quarter construction output data was revised
up in comparison to the figure used in the Q1 GDP estimate, but the
impact on overall growth will be negligible.
National Statistics data issued Friday put Q1 construction output
at down 4.0% on the quarter compared to down 4.7% in the Q1 GDP
estimate. NS said this would add less than 0.1 percentage point to the
Q1 quarterly growth rate.
The construction data also revealed a string of revisions, largely
downward ones, to quarterly 2010 figures. Fourth quarter 2010
construction output was revised down to -2.7% on the quarter from -2.3%,
while third quarter growth was revised down to up 3.5% from up 3.8%.
Second quarter construction was revised down to 7.1% on the quarter
from 7.2% while the big change came in Q1 2010, which was revised up to
1.0% on the quarter from -0.1%.
National Statistics said the new growth rates in 2010 were driven
by new data returns. These in turns had led to changes in the
seasonality of the data, an NS official said.
Analysts, however, have raised doubts over National Statistics
seasonal adjustment patterns.
The extreme volatility of the construction output series has led
the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to focus on measures of
GDP excluding construction.
In the May Inflation Report, the BOE put UK growth excluding
construction and weather effects at around 0.5% in the first quarter.
–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]