UK Analysis: ILO Unemployment Posts First Fall Since Jul-Sep

–Mar claimant count unemployment +700; rate 4.5%
–Dec-Feb ILO unemployment -17,000 q/q; rate 7.8%
–Feb total weekly earnings +2.0% 3m y/y vs +2.3% in Jan
–Feb regular weekly earnings +2.2% 3m y/y vs +2.3% in Jan

LONDON (MNI) – Unemployment posted a surprise fall in the three
months to February and employment rose strongly, according to figures
released by National Statistics Wednesday.

The official measure of unemployment declined 17,000 in December to
February compared with the previous three months, the first decline
since July-September. Analysts has expected to see a rise of 16,500.

The latest decline meant the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, also
the lowest since July-September.

The brighter picture in the labour market was echoed by figures
which showed employment rose 143,000 in the latest three months. Notably
this was made up of a 140,000 rise in full time employment, the largest
increase since Mar-May 2007 and puts full time employment up 137,000 on
the year, having previously been in negative territory. Only 3,000 of
the latest rise in employment came from part-time employment.

Economists have pointed out recently that much of the recent rise
in employment has come from part-time jobs, but the strong rise in full
time employment could be seen as a clear sign that firms are willing to
hire again as the economy improves.

In spite of the improved data this month, doubts remain over
whether the private sector will be able to create enough jobs to offset
the expected decline in public sector employment over the coming years.

The more up to date claimant count measure of unemployment posted a
surprise rise in March, increasing by 700 on the month, against
expectations of a fall of 7,000.

A small decline in male claimants was offset by a 5,100 rise in
female claimants, with the latter rise partly due to a change in
benefits.

Earnings growth remained remarkably subdued in February. Regular
earnings rose just 2.0%, down from the 2.3% increase in January and well
below the median estimate of 2.5%. Earnings ex-bonuses fell to 2.2% from
2.3% in January.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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