I'm starting to get a bit edgy about Trump tonight
I'm getting one of my "feelings" tingling about Trump later, and what effect he's going to have (or not have) on the dollar. Those "feelings" aren't usually about something good happening.
USDJPY 15m chart
This chart tells me that the market isn't getting overly excited about tonight, and probably as expected, some of that is down to the disappointment from his interview this morning, which largely amounted to nothing.
That could be read in two ways. One, the market isn't that bothered about tonight, or two, the market is getting ready for even more disappointment. My gut feeling is that the dollar isn't going to be a happy bunny by close of biz today. Irrespective of my view, the price action will tell us a lot about how traders set up for it. IF we see the dollar rally on nothing remotely news worthy (following yields or whatever), that's a clue that traders are getting into expectation trades, and that makes the risk of a counter move on disappointment doubly dangerous.
If the market isn't getting ahead it itself, that would usually limit any downside but I'm not even sure that will happen.
To put it in even simpler terms, I see tonight sucking big time, and even if it doesn't suck, it will need to be the least suckiest thing ever to get the dollar rallying properly. Trade it as you will but just keep things in perspective.
