Don’t read too much into any of the moves today or tomorrow. It’s the end of the month and the end of the quarter.
The Chicago PMI was soft but the market rallied anyway, don’t try to make sense of it. Yellen was dovish and USD/JPY gave back some gains, falling to 102.90 from 103.40 but it’s perked back up to 102.23.
At the end of the day, Yellen’s latest comments didn’t change anything but it’s a dangerous time to fight the flow.