US will sell 10-year notes
Economic data today includes wholesales sales and weekly oil inventories but the event to watch will be the 1700 GMT sale of US 10-year notes. It's a $24 billion reopening and comes amidst the volatility in bonds over the past month.
In the past cycle there were some big misses in the auctions that led to some spillovers into FX and elsewhere. This is the on-the-run 10-year and it's trading at 1.74% while the WI on the sale is at 1.750/1.740% on the bid/ask.
The level to watch for me in the 10-year is 1.76% followed by 1.84%, which is the 61.8% retracement since Trump's latest tariff announcement.
The current debate is whether the rebound from 1.42% is because of better sentiment on global growth, falling odds of ECB QE, or bond supply. Corporates will launch more than $100B in bonds in short order, inclduing a three-parter from Kraft Heinz just announced.
For more on what's coming today, check out the economic calendar.
