A quick looks at the risk indicators shows the waters are calm
Unlike the first round of the French elections, there's very little risk being associated with Sunday's second round. EURJPY was a big risk indicator for the first round and it's not flagging anything for the second.
EURJPY 1m ATM options vols
I should imagine we'll get some small risk covering into Friday but it looks like the market is writing this one off as a non-event. If there's one thing we've learnt in trading, it's to not get too complacent about any result. Just because the market may be dismissing this, it will only exponentially increase any market moves should Le Pen actually win.
I'll keep an eye on this indicator over the rest of the week just in case it starts shifting.
