Ratings agent Moody's is cranking out the reports today
Hot on the heels of their French election analysis, their attention turns to Brexit.
Base case is that UK and EU reach a Brexit deal that mimics most but not all, trading and regulatory arrangements
Credit implications of Brexit will be modest and manageable for most UK issuers if shared interests of the UK and EU underpin the deal
Downside risks include the possibility that no new or temporary arrangements are in place before the end of the two-year period stipulated for withdrawal talks, or if negotiations were to break down
The UK's sovereign rating trajectory will depend to an important extent on the likelihood of achieving a new trade arrangement, along the lines of the UK government's stated preferences
Under base case scenario, Brexit will have no substantial credit negative consequences for banks based in the UK, or with sizeable subsidiaries or branches in the country
So no dramas if an agreeable deal is concluded, otherwise the poo hits the fan. Same old, same old then ;-)
