The one chart pattern that keeps appearing

A sharp fall from the beginning of the year with a bottom near the end of January, a bounce then a higher low and higher high. The best example might be 10-year yields:

US 10 year yields

US 10 year yields

Another great example is AUD/JPY while CAD/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY are similar. Even the S&P 500 follows the same pattern.

Initially, the dips looked like healthy retracements but the deeper they fall, the more concerning they become. I expected the 61.8% retracement to hold in AUD/JPY but it briefly gave way yesterday and again today (although it hasn’t yet closed below). I wrote about GBP/JPY earlier and it’s on the cusp of make a full retracement of the move since the start of the month. I still find it hard to believe these moves won’t eventually bear fruit but if that pair gives way, look out.

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