The top 5 from Bloomberg’s non farm payrolls rankings has cast their guesses for today and there’s quite some divergence. Here’s the table as it stands.
- Westbury/Steun – First Trust
- Nariman Behravesh – IHS Global
- Scott Brown – Raymond James
- Christine Von Berg – Bayerische Landesbank
- Harm Bandholz – Unicredit
Two have gone for the the main market consensus around 230k. There’s two gone below and one over. Adam has the main numbers from the market on his preview
NFP pickers 06 02 2015
The initial jobless claims 4 week average was at 293k at the time of the NFP report so it’s likely to have missed out the jump to 307k in the middle of the month. That could well lead to a drop in NFP next month if it missed the cut this month.
NFP vs jobless claims 4 week avg
Just keep it in mind though if we do see a sizeable lower number. The jump is just slightly less than what we saw over the polar vortex affected jobs numbers back in late 2013, early 2014.
US initial jobless claims 4 week average with super, no expense spared, weather effects
So there’s the numbers and something to watch for on the release. Even with that the main focus is still on wages rather than jobs and that’s going to be the big driver of prices after the initial reaction. Adam cited analysis from Deutsche Bank on the way the market takes in all the data and explains it with Greg in the Jobs numbers preview, which is well worth a gander if you haven’t seen it already.
I’m off now to gather some levels together to watch over the release, which I’ll pop up in good time.
