The hatchets are being taken to US growth after soft data

Following retail sales and PPI data the cuts to GDP are coming thick and fast

  • BAML cuts its Q3 GDP tracker to 1.3% from 1.7%
  • BNP cut theirs to 2.3% from 2.5%
  • Goldman Sachs cut theirs to 1.2% vs 1.5% prior

For interest rates, Fed funds futures now price a rate hike chance at 6% for the Oct FOMC, down from 8%. Dec is now a 30.4% chance vs 39.3% yesterday

The Atlanta Fed's GDP now gets updated sometime soon today and stood at 1.0% as of Oct 9th. That was down from 1.1% three days prior

Anyone would think growth is going end up flat on its face suddenly

Best in 2026

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