Exports and investment are the Bank of Canada mantra. They say all the elements are there for a pickup but want to see concrete evidence that it’s happening.
They got some today as Export Development Canada’s semi-annual Trade Confidence Index showed exporter confidence rising.
“Canadian exporters are far more bullish on the US economy compared with six months ago. Of those that believe that the global economy is on the upswing, almost one third believe that the US revival will be the primary catalyst in the coming six months,” said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, EDC. “That’s up from just three per cent last fall.” “Exporters are also much more upbeat about economic improvement in Europe.”
Confidence climbed 1.8 points to 77.2 in the third consecutive increase. BOC Governor Poloz came to the central bank from Export Development Canada so he is sure to keep an eye on this metric.
Graphic from Export Development Canada
If this trend continues and surveys of investment intentions pick up, Poloz could follow in his predecessor’s footsteps and signal sooner rate hikes.
