We're headed for a showdown between May and parliament members who want to take a no-deal option off the table
With May not likely to get a Brexit deal vote at the Commons next week, it's going to come down to a vote on whether or not parliament has faith in her to deliver what is needed at the next European Union Summit in March. She's skating on thin ice at the moment and there's no telling how much support a revolt in parliament will be able to command for the time being.
Bloomberg has a very concise diagram of how things look set to play out:
If May fails to gather enough support during next week's vote, we're most likely headed for some form of Brexit extension in the coming weeks. But just the idea of taking a no-deal option off the table will be enough to see the pound jump up a notch or two.
But not all is doom and gloom if May is the one who comes out on top next week, as it means Brussels are likely to continue to keep working closely with her to offer the needed changes on the political declaration.
However, as pointed out here last week, while all those concessions and compromises on the backstop may sound attractive, they will fall short of being legally-binding. Hence, it will come down to whether or not parliament will accept that as the final Brexit outcome; considering the fact that going down this path means that they would have failed to cease Brexit control from May in the first place.
