Bonds will tell the story
US 10-year yields have been dancing with 0.80% on stimulus hopes all month. An push in the month to that level failed but we're having another look today.
It's no coincidence that 0.80% is in play on the same day of the stimulus 'deadline' for Congress. It's a simple line in the sand and a simple story: Will there be a deal? If so, it's another big hole in the deficit that confirms we're entering a decade of runaway spending. If not, we could be setting up for a few miserable months and then an election that's even more important.
I don't rule out a false breakout because politics can be so volatility but this is a great barometer.
