AUD is the worst performer today
The last two months have been a series of recurring themes for the Australian dollar
- In good US dollar environments, it struggles
- In bad US dollar environments, it fails to capitalize
- In good risk environments, it does ok
- In bad risk environments, it suffers
The environments have been changeable from day to day but the result has been a steady slide in AUD/USD down to 0.77000 from 0.8125 in late January. Year-to-date the Australian dollar is only ahead of the loonie, which has been punished on NAFTA fears.
A consistent series of lower lows and lower highs has developed and both of the big rallies in the past 6 days have been squashed.
I think there is some room for optimism on Australian interest rates and for commodities but if last week's low breaks, there isn't much to stop a drop to 0.7500.
