Back above 4% after the Friday slide
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on July 2, up from 3.8 percent on June 29. After this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth increased from 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from 7.6 percent to 5.3 percent. The nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for June-normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data-increased from 0.15 to 0.77 after the ISM report this morning.
