LONDON (MNI) – Analysts are united in the belief the Bank of
England Monetary Policy Committee will not extend quantitative easing
this month but they are split over what will happen in May, the next key
decision month.
A Market News/NTKN survey found none of the 37 economics teams
covered expected any policy change from the MPC this month. Of the 31
which gave a forecast for May, 17 expected no increase in QE and 14
forecast it would be extended, with the median forecast showing no
change.
All eyes are on May as the MPC will have completed its next
quarterly forecast round ahead of that meeting and voting history shows
it is far more likely to change policy in forecast round months.
Please see the accompanying report for analysts’ views.
The table below shows analysts’ forecasts:
BOE BOE
QE QE
March May
Meeting Meeting
Total Total
Stg bln Stg bln
————————————————————————
Median Forecast 325 325
High forecast 325 375
Low forecast 325 325
Previous period 325 325
————————————————————————
Number of responses 37 31
————————————————————————
4Cast 325 325
ABN Amro 325 n/a
Barclays Capital 325 325
BNP Paribas 325 325
BoA-ML 325 325
Capital Economics 325 375
Commerzbank 325 n/a
Danske 325 n/a
Deutsche 325 350
HSBC 325 325
ING 325 375
IHS Global Insight 325 350
Investec 325 375
Jeffries 325 325
JP Morgan 325 350
Lloyds TSB 325 375
LBBW 325 n/a
Monument 325 325
Moody’s Analytics 325 375
Morgan Stanley 325 375
National Australia Bank 325 350
Nomura 325 350
Oxford Econ 325 325
PwC 325 325
Rabobank 325 325
RBS 325 325
RBC 325 325
RIA 325 325
Schroders 325 375
ScotiaCapital 325 325
SEB 325 325
Soc. Generale 325 n/a
Standard Chartered 325 375
Sumitomo Mitsui 325 325
UBS 325 n/a
West LB 325 325
Westpac 325 375
————————————————————————
–London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$$BE$,MTABLE]