Standard Chartered China's nowcasting model has economic growth at 5.7% y/y in July/August (that's from 6.2% in Q2)
Citing:
- Industrial production growth averaged only 4.6% y/y in July and August (5.6% for Q2)
- reflects lower demand and destocking by firms due to falling profits
- retail sales growth dragged down by the normalisation of car sales
- fixed asset investment growth also slowed from Q2
- weaker manufacturing investment
- trade tensions continue to weigh
- expect the contribution of net exports to GDP growth to decline in H2 of 2019
Stan Chart say growth to have improved modestly in September
- Early indicators suggest that production activity may have picked up
- Infrastructure investment likely continued to recover
- drag from car sales likely eased
"We expect counter-cyclical measures to shore up the economy, with a focus on accelerating rural consumer spending, old town renovation, and construction of logistics and information technology networks."
