A research note from RBC focusing on emerging markets, but of course the US dollar is a huge influence
- see the USD higher in 2019
Citing:
- too early for the US economy to reach a cyclical peak
- Fed tightening will not yet lose momentum
On China and the yuan:
- USD/CNY could reach 7.50 by end 2019
- market is underestimating the risks to Chinese growth
- market is overestimating China's policy flexibility
- hence further CNY depreciation to come
