The RBA cut rates by 25bps at their November meeting two weeks ago and the minutes of that meeting will be released at 11:30 am Sydney time. I see more downside than upside risk for the AUD this morning as the liklihood in my opinion is that the minutes will show an intention to cut rates by another 25bps in February next year, but possibly even as early as next month. China’s slowing growth and falling inflation, combined with the EZ situation, will be the main global factors and domestically, the very low underlying CPI will also be an important factor.
A clear break below the overnight low, and previous pivot, at 1.0160 could set off some stop-loss selling by short-term players.
