RBA likely to stay on hold tomorrow

Not much has changed in the last month therefore the market is only factoring in about a 20% chance that the RBA will cut rates by 25bps tomorrow. They seem quite happy to sit tight and keep their ammunition dry in case the global situation shows signs of worsening. AUD/USD is quite comfortable in its 1.0600/1.0850 range and it may take a fairly sizeable shock to drive it out of this comfort zone.