The focus will be on how the labor market is progressing on Friday morning US time
(Will anyone focus on how to spell labour correctly though? ;-) )
Previews:
- Goldman Sachs preview of the nonfarm payrolls report
- Not long until the NFP numbers
- Here are the estimates for the nonfarm payroll report
Adding some more quickies
TD:
- We expect payrolls to slow to 175k as surveys (ISM non-manufacturing) signal a pullback below 200k.
- We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 3.9% as a jump in unemployed workers corrects,
- and look for a benign 0.2% rise in wages, keeping the y/y pace at 2.7%.
Barclays:
- to rise 175k
- private payrolls to increase 160k
- This would represent some modest slowing from the recent trend pace of hiring and, in our view, could reflect increasing concerns over protectionism.
- unemployment rate to decline 0.1pp, to 3.9%
- average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y
- an unchanged work week at 34.5 hours
UBS:
207k in July, close to H1's 215k per month average and continuing the pick up from last year's 182k pace.
We see strength across the spectrum
- as construction continues its robust expansion
- manufacturing maintains momentum
- education payrolls again rise above trend
- Consumer spending strength probably continued to support retail employment … tax cuts and the broadening strength in growth this year are boosting disposable incomes and spending
… manufacturing employment reflects the underlying strength we see in the manufacturing sector, as rising oil prices continue to support robust growth in energy- related activity and we see acceleration in non-energy manufacturing
- unemployment rate to decline 0.1 pt to 3.9%
- participation rate to rise 0.1 pt to 63.0%
- average hourly earnings +0.23% m/m but the y/y pace stalled at 2.7%-in line with recent gains and up modestly from 2.5% in Q4
