Due at 2245GMT - NZ Trade Balance for March
- expected surplus of 275m, prior surplus (February) was 217m
- exports expected 4.91bn, previous 4.46bn
- imports expected 4.8bn, prior 4.24bn
Preview via Capital Economics:
- We expect that some of the narrowing in the seasonally-adjusted trade deficit in February, from $586m to $193m, was reversed in March as car imports started to recover after plunging in February.
- The 5.6% m/m fall in import values in February was mostly driven by a drop in passenger car imports as four cargo ships were unable to unload their stock following the discovery of stink bugs. We expect a bounce back in March and April's figures as these ships have now been unloaded. And while the exact timing isn't clear, the partial recovery in passenger vehicle registrations suggests that some of the catchup occurred in March. (See Chart 2.)
- We've pencilled in a 3.0% m/m rise in import values. Another modest rise in export values would therefore have meant that the seasonally-adjusted trade deficit widened to around $400m. Nonetheless, after subtracting 1.0ppt from GDP growth in the fourth quarter, it seems that the drag on growth from net trade will be much smaller in the first quarter.
Preview via NAB, the bank expects:
- a surplus of 48m NZD
- The timing of Easter widens the usual, already wide, error bounds around trade forecasts
- Slower exports are expected
- Buoyant domestic demand underpins import growth despite issues with car imports on biosecurity grounds
Yeah, biosecurity ... here is the explanation on that ICYMI: NZ trade data earlier today - it was all about the stink bugs (true story)
