Retail sales towards the end of 2018 came in soft indeed, December reading was -0.4% m/m
- expected today is +0.3% m/m for the January result
Preview via Westpac, expecting well under consensus:
- weak finish to 2018 … some of this likely reflects 'residual seasonality' with the ABS struggling to adjust for the shifting in timing of sales around the Christmas period (the rising popularity of 'Black Friday' and new year sales in particular) the underlying trend is still clearly weak.
- annual growth is sluggish at best
- Consumer sentiment had a shaky start to 2019, dipping into net pessimistic territory for the first time since 2017 but recovering in Feb. Private sector business surveys suggest there has been no respite for retailers with a sharp deterioration in conditions in Dec extending into Jan. We expect total retail sales to show a 0.1% dip for the Dec month.
(in brief, bolding mine)
