Okay, throwing in a couple for good measure
The prior report can be found here. The previous surplus saw LNG exports being the biggest contributor. Expectation this time around is for a slightly improved trade surplus of AUD 865m.
NAB
- Expects trade surplus to increase to $1 bn in March, led by stronger exports
- LNG continues to ramp up and services exports trend higher
Westpac
- Trade surplus is expected to narrow to $0.2 bn from $0.8 bn, led lower by exports
- Export earnings are forecast to contract by 1.0% in March, down $350 mn
- The key negative, the iron ore spot price retreated from recent highs, declining to US$70/t from $76.50
- Focusing on the March quarter, the trade balance improved to a surplus of $2.0 bn, a turnaround from a deficit of $0.7 bn in Q4 - based on our forecast and subject to revisions
CBA
- Trade surplus expected to widen to $1.2 bn in March
- Mainly due to higher commodity prices
- The small increase is expected following higher bulk prices
The aussie shouldn't really be too responsive if the data comes in around estimates. The only shocking thing would be a deficit figure, but other than that it shouldn't contain too much fireworks.
March dwelling approvals will be out at the same time so maybe a combo of data points could produce some reaction in the otherwise quiet market we're seeing.
I'll put up some previews of the latter in a bit as well.
