The Jan data gives a reason to be cheerful but that may not last
Exports rose 0.5% vs 1.3% in Dec. That was revised down from 3.1%. Imports were 0.1% vs -0.6% prior, revised down from 0.6%. That doesn't look impressive which is why the ONS like to highlight the 3m/3m numbers here too, which saw exports at 8.7% vs a revised 6.6% in Dec (prior 7.1%), and imports at 1.6% vs rev -1.6% (prior -0.4%).
The ONS say that there is no direct evidence that the pound's fall is helping exports but that the performance over the last 6 months suggests an increase in UK competitiveness in foreign markets. Make of that what you will but the UK is still not reaping the level of benefits from a weaker pound some were hoping for.
GBPUSD has risen slightly on the better data but don't expect that to last on the data alone. The problem with these numbers is that they are lagging. If the PMI's are any indication, Feb isn't going to be a good month here.
Given the evidence we've seen so far in Feb, it would be apt to expect less favourable data for production when we get the Feb numbers. We'll have to wait and see what the expectations are for them nearer the time to see if there's a trade or not.
