I think it is.
Almost every strategist I know thinks the same thing.
The problem is that we have all been here before. The speculative market has wanted to short the yen since 2008 but has been repeatedly stifled and scarred.
If this is the turn, knowing that the market is gun-shy tells you something. It tells you that the would-be yen shorts are waiting on sidelines. They want to jump in but they’re nervous because they’ve been burned before.
Once they’re convinced, they are going to jump in with both feet and the move will be swift and relentless and more and more people chase the move.
If this is the turn, my feeling is that you always want to hold a small yen short. If not, chasing the moves will tear you apart.