The Philly Fed hit a two-year high in September at 22.3 but expectations are for a pullback to 15.0.
Factory sentiment numbers aren’t the best indicator of how consumers and the economy has responded to the shutdown but markets are starving for data and will feast on whatever is served. Watch the employment component, it hit +10.3 in September which is far above the +0.1 average over the past six months. New orders were also extremely strong at 21.1.
The index is out at 10 am ET (1400 GMT).
Dollar declines are consolidating but a soft number could spark another round of selling. On the other hand, if it’s weak the market may start to reconsider the taper which would add some outsized gains to beaten up trades like USD/JPY.