In? Out? Shake it all about?
The polling card hit my doormat yesterday and brought home that in a month's time I've got to help my country make one of the most important decisions for decades.
I'm very disappointed though. After months and months of tv programs, radio programs, internet programs, newspaper stories, polls, domestic speakers, foreign speakers, conversations with friends and relations, not once have I heard a single sound argument from either side that's going to convince me to vote either way. To be honest it's all been an utter shambles from start to finish.
I honestly believe that even those at the top, on either side of the fence, also don't really have the foggiest idea about what staying or leaving means. If the people at the top don't have a clue, how does that leave the rest of us charged with voting?
I'm not a economist, most of my learning comes from living life, not out of books, from being in financial markets for many years but also from the other side, seeing the economics from a business perspective across many sectors and industries. I know what the crisis did to markets and I know what it did to the grass roots of UK business. I don't need anyone to explain to me what pain may come from this vote.
In essence my vote is going to probably come down to which is the lesser of two evils. I'm not writing this post to try and project my view on to others. At the least I hope that getting my thoughts down in black and white will add some conviction to my own thinking. If it helps other do the same then that's a bonus.
I'm going to try and take the trading approach to make my decision. I'll look at the options, weigh up the risks and see what I believe the best trade will be.
Trade
Nothing gets my goat more than people from other countries trying to threaten me. Obama, Schaeuble, countless others, you can threaten to put us at the back of the queue for trade deals if you like but just remember that we buy more than we sell. We bought £5.5bn's worth of stuff from Germany in March and £3.6bn from the US. The point is that they have more to risk than us when it comes down to counting the cost of us leaving. Can any country afford to lose sales right now?
Obviously there would be damage both ways and from my perspective, does the UK really need to, or more importantly can it afford to, damage itself economically by whatever upset leaving brings? UK firms will still have to abide by EU rules on products and services. Everything will have to toe the line if it's to get across the border. In or out that won't change.
Trade deals will get done eventually and in the meanwhile, the UK economy will be even more domestically focused. If outside markets are cut off, then that might give a chance for UK businesses to fill the gaps. Or is that a pipe dream?
And it's not just trade. Is Spain going to turf out nearly 400,000 Brits living and spending in their country? What about all the Brits in other countries like Ireland (250k), France (170k)? We bring a lot of beans to other countries so again, is that money these countries can afford to lose by being spiteful?
On balance, I'm inclined to vote for staying just so it doesn't bring pain to UK firms that are already facing a fragile global economy. That may be a very short-term reason but that's the world we're in right now.
Immigration
Let's get this volatile subject out of the way. Anyone who thinks that our immigration policy will change if we leave is living in cloud cuckoo land. The thousands of immigrants camped out around French ports aren't going to pack their bags and head back home if we vote to leave. While the UK government stands with its wallet open to all and sundry that hit our shores, they'll keep coming. While I'm sure that the majority do come here with the intention of finding work and a decent future, the rest are here to sponge, just like a fair few of the indigenous population. Immigration arguments are top of the list for those campaigning to leave and I don't believe any of them.
Voting to stay or leave will have zero impact on any aspect of immigration. It can be dealt with whether we're in or out, if we choose to do so. For the EU vote, it means nothing.
Politics
This is what it all boils down to in my mind. It's not trade, it's not immigration, it's the clowns in Europe facing a more realistic chance of the European project failing than when Greece was in the frame. If we go then there's every chance others will follow. While the Eurozone countries are locked in, those like us on the periphery will be the ones to watch.
We're constantly told that we're better off staying so that we have a voice in the European parliament. That's a parliament where our voice is tiny and often overruled. That's the nature of politics though. Sovereignty is the buzzword for campaigners and whether we'll have more or less voting in or out? What does sovereignty count for though? As above, we may be able to set our own terms and rules for trade but that won't mean much if it doesn't comply with the rules of Europe and elsewhere.
The threats from Europe are from people scared of what us leaving may do to them, not how much pain it will cause us. I can understand that. They need to protect what they believe in. However, it's not a stick I'm going to let them beat me with. It's our choice and we'll deal with the resulting mess on our side, any other mess will be their's to clean up.
So which way should I vote?
The devil in me would vote out, just to see what it brings when we give a very British two fingered salute to Europe. The patriotic English blood heats up in me and thinks that we don't need anyone telling us what to do, or how to think. We once ruled most of the world and we've got the ability to prosper and remain strong.
The sensible side of me says that all that above is ancient history and we're just a former shadow of the power we once were. We're still innovators, we're still up there at the forefront of science and technology, we're still a financial powerhouse, we're just not what we were, and that's the situation we're living in now.
I'll probably vote to stay but it won't be because I truly believe in that path or in my politicians ability to do the right thing by me or my country but because the nature of the beast is that the world is a much smaller place and "sovereignty", as we once knew it, doesn't really exist anymore. We're on this path of integration whether we like it or not, whether we vote for it or not. That's a pretty sad fact when in essence, a democratic vote should bring proper change to an issue, or set a new direction. When I vote it will be with a feeling of resignation and apathy rather than pride and privilege that I'm making a difference, and that's probably the saddest thing of all.
However the UK votes, the world will keep turning and we'll just have to make the best of it.