I’m getting the sense that this QE driven rally may be in for a pause. WTI has fallen back to a $93 handle, EUR/USD stalled twice at 1.3170, USD/JPY could not maintain its gains after a fresh dose of bond-buying from the BOJ.
Given the geopolitical backdrop and the lack of new news, I think we’re due for a retracement. A break below the 1.2980/90 level will increase that likelihood.
Keep an eye on gold. It is holding up well but might be a sign of a deeper pullback in risk assets if it begins to lose steam.