The kiwi was the top performer this week followed by the pound and Aussie. The yen and CAD were laggards.
The RBNZ has adopted a hiking bias in a world where everyone is easing or flat, it’s as simple as that. For the yen, it fell hard this week but it was a retracement from big gains the week before.
Some bullish factors:
- Holding the 38.2% retracement is bullish
- Double bottom in March and June
- Recent low was higher than the June low, suggesting basing underway
- A break of 80.48 would be bullish
NZDJPY weekly chart
The main risk is that if the support at that double-bottom breaks, it’s a head-and-shoulders pattern that targets somewhere around 65.00.