NZ employment data for 1Q
The headline numbers for the 1Q unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.4%. The employment change was also right on expectations at 0.6%. ZZZZZ.
Other data:
- unemployment rate 4.4% versus 4.4% estimate. Last quarter 4.5%
- employment change YoY 3.1% versus 3.3%. Last 3.7%
- participation rate 70.8% versus 71.0%. Last 70.9%
- private wages including overtime QoQ 0.3% versus 0.5% expected
- private wages ex overtime QoQ 0.3% versus 0.4%. Last 0.4%
- average hourly earnings QoQ 1.1% versus 0.5% estimate. Last 0.8%
The headline data came out right on expectations. The wage data was mixed. The 4.4% is the lowest level in 9 years. So although as expected, it still is a 9 year low.
The lower employment may lift wages down the road, but with CPI inflation (see chart below) still nearer the lows of the target range, there is no hurry to raise rates. The RBNZ has signaled it will not raise until mid-2019 (at least).
The NZDUSD moved higher on a liquidty spike to 0.7021, but has moved back down and traded to a new low of 0.6993 The pair remains near the lows going back to December.
The AUDNZD had a liquidity spike lower below the 200 hour MA at at 1.0679 but is up testing the 100 hour MA above at 1.0700.
There was no big surprise, so liquidity flows will dictate the ups and down. But it could also be choppy too.
