ANZ's privately produced inflation gauge for New Zealand
+1.1% m/m in January
- the largest monthly rise since late 2015
ANZ's 'key points':
details are less striking
- temporary factors contributed around two thirds of January's monthly rise
- Looking through monthly volatility, implied quarterly growth from the Gauge is sitting comfortably in a 0.6-0.8% range. Annual growth ticked down from 2.3% to 2.2% (the lowest annual rate since mid-2017). Notwithstanding the miss in June 2018 (the largest miss since 2010), the Gauge has given an accurate read on non-tradable inflation for the last two CPI prints
- Overall, prices are rising in a gradual yet unspectacular fashion on the back of previous strength in the economy. We expect non-tradable inflation will nudge higher in the short term, but then dissipate.
- Broad-based inflationary pressure is still largely missing, outside of housing
(bolding mine … the headline does indeed look dramatic but ANZ says No)
