This indicator from ANZ measures traffic volumes as a proxy for economic growth
Heavy traffic -2.6% m/m
- prior +1.1%
Light -0.7% m/m
- prior +0.9% m/m
ANZ comments:
- We now have complete data for Q3. The monthly fall in the Heavy Traffic Index means the Truckometer is now suggesting the risks around GDP growth in the quarter are skewed towards a weaker outturn.
- The Light Traffic Index leads GDP growth by six months. It concurs that Q3 growth could be on the low side, but suggests weakness may not persist.
More:
- The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index fell 2.6% m/m in September (seasonally adjusted). It is certainly far too soon to suggest that this monthly fall represents any kind of threat to the upward trend in the index, but it did make a decent dent in quarterly growth. On face value, the Index suggests that another quarter of GDP growth approaching 1% q/q is perhaps unlikely.
- The Light Traffic Index gives a 6-month lead on the direction of the economy and is best interpreted as a measure of momentum. Perhaps reflecting strong population growth, growth in this index has been outpacing the usual relationship with GDP of late. However, recent outturns are directionally consistent with our expectation that the economy will continue to gently lose steam in the near term
This data fits with other signs of a touch of weakness creeping into the NZ economy.
The NZD dipped a few pips on the release, it is not a higher tier data point.
