The focus is now on Q2 now that Q1 is out
The NY Fed GDP Nowcast for the Q2 rose to 3.22% from 3.03% last week.
- Manufacturing inventories for durables added 0.11%,
- data revisions added 0.08%
- new single-family houses sold added 0.6%
Taking away this week included:
- manufacturing shipments of durable goods subtracted -0.10%
- real GDP subtracted -0.3%
For Q1 the NY Fed model showed Q1 at 2.97% last week. Today it was reported at 2.3% for the first cut at least (there will be more revisions over the next few months).
The Atlanta Fed's final guessimate for the 1Q was at the concensus estimate of 2.0%.
So one was too low. One was too high, but the Atlanta Fed was the closest.
PS the 3.22% estimate for Q2 will go through many revisions over time as the estimate is based on data known and data not known. The earlier in the quarter, the more unreliable it can be. Case in point was that the Atlanta Fed pegged Q1 GDP at 5.4% at the start of the quarter.
