Here are some of the numbers to consider ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Release time is 8:30 am ET.
- Median estimate 197K (200K private)
- Nov reading: 203K
- High est 250K (Deutsche Bank)
- Low est 150K (First Trust Advisors)
- Standard deviation: 25K
- NFP 6-month avg 179.5K
- Unemployment rate est. at 6.9% vs 6.9% prior
- ADP 238K vs 229K prior (200K exp)
- ISM manufacturing employment 56.9 vs 56.5 prior (6-month avg 55.0)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment: 55.8 vs 52.5 prior (6-month avg 54.6)
- Challenger job cuts -5.9% y/y
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 32.5 vs 34.1 prior
- Philly Fed employment: +2.2 vs +1.1 prior
- Chicago PMI employment: 51.6 vs 60.9 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 349K vs 330K at the time of the Nov jobs report
- Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: +125.6K to 5297K
- Oct JOLTS job openings: 3925K vs 3898K exp
The market is likely pricing in a number slightly higher than the consensus after the upbeat ADP number. Estimates that have changed in the past two days skew significantly higher.
On the low side, Citi argues that weather effects could lead to a downside miss but my favorite pre-NFP indicator is ISM non-manufacturing and that points to a stronger reading.
If we see a number above +250K, the market will be forced to consider a taper faster than $10B/month and that would be a great reason to buy the US dollar. Alternatively, a miss on the downside might be seen as a one-off event and I’d expect US dollar dip buying after the dust settles.
Remember to play our non-farm payrolls contest as well!