Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of April 2018 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, May 4, 2018:
- Median NFP estimate 192K (190k private)
- March 103K
- Highest estimate 255k
- Lowest estimate 145k
- Average estimate 194.3k
- Standard deviation 19.6k
- Unemployment rate exp 4.0% vs 4.1% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.9%
- Underemployment U6 prior 8.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.7% y/y vs 2.7% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.2% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here's the April jobs story so far
- ADP 198K vs 228K prior (204K expected)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment 53.6 vs 56.6 prior (lowest since March 2017)
- ISM manufacturing employment 54.2 vs 57.3 prior (second lowest in past year)
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 221.5vs 230K prior
- Claims during reference week 209K
- Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 15.2 vs 15.7 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring -69.3K
- Feb JOLTS 6024K vs 6228k prior
I see the risks skewed to the downside on employment. The jobs market has been running hotter than the economy for awhile and the employment readings for both ISM reports were soft, especially Thursday's non-manufacturing index.
The March reading of 103K is around what the Fed is expecting from here and I think economists are
That said, I don't think it's going to make a big difference for markets. Last month's report was soft on jobs and the market brushed it aside to focus on wages.
Overall, the labor market is strong but there just isn't an appetite to compete to attract workers with higher pay. At some point, it will happen and that's why the market is watching hourly earnings so closely.
What's certain is that little else besides the wages data matters. Expect 90% of the market reaction to focus on the m/m wage headline. The irritating thing is that the estimates only run for one number after the decimal. There's a big difference between 0.151% and 0.249% but they both come out at 0.2% and that's what's going to drive the kneejerk.
