The big focal point for the market today is, of course, the NFP numbers at 1230GMT.
Let’s do a quick review of employment indications we got out of the US yesterday:
- We got, first up, at 1130GMT Challenger Job Cuts, and after a string of big falls in the number of job cuts over the past four months we got an 11.6% increase.
- At 1215 yesterday we had the ADP National Employment Report; it came in at an increase of 158,000 private sector jobs. The ADP report has shown in the past it is not a good predictor of the NFP number … and just to add further to the confusion this ADP report used a new methodology … so drawing any conclusions from it at all seems non-productive until we can see a bit of a track record.
- OK, fifteen minutes after the ADP report came the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a little below expectations at 363K (expected was at 370K). The prior week, as always, revised up (from 369K to 372K).
- Consensus expectation for the NFP figure today is a gain of 125,000 (last month’s figure was 114,000).
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