The bond market is driving this bus and the US dollar is following.
US 10-year notes are rallying hard, knocking yields 7 bps lower to 2.09% today. A close here would be the lowest since mid-2013.
There are three arguments:
- The Fed isn’t going to hike because of low inflation
- The Fed will hike at first, but the top of the cycle will be 1% instead of 3%
- That the Fed will hike but it will be a huge blunder
