At some stage from China today we should be on the lookout for the China March foreign reserves data
There is no specific time scheduled for the release
- The Bloomberg survey consensus median expected is USD3011.0bn
- The February results was USD3005.1bn
China's foreign exchange reserves edged higher in February, and are expected (as you can see above) of having done so again in March
- Further out, expectations are that monthly gains will be repeated through the course of this year
- Not every month, but more balanced than the continuing outflows seen prior to February (February was the first uptick in FX reserves after 8 months of under the $3tln mark)
According to Pan Gongsheng, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange:
- Cross-border capital movement gradually becoming balanced
- He "struck a confident tone that China's cross-border payments will be "steady" in the future"
(Then again, they're always saying something along these lines)
Stability in cross border flows (which is a euphemism for a stabilisation in capital outflow from China) should help stabilise the yuan somewhat. Also helping is the low probability of China being officially labelled a currency manipulator. The next report from the U.S. Treasury is due in a week (April 14), they'd have to massively change their definition of a manipulator to name and shame China ... and that ain't gonna happen ... I've already posted on that issue earlier this week:
- Ahead of the Xi - Trump meeting Thursday & Friday - why China not a manipulator
- Another 'Trump unlikely to formally declare China a currency manipulator' piece
(ps. what the space cadet tweets is another matter :-D )
