NFP: Good but is it good enough for the dollar?

"Danger Will Robinson"

The dollar is still making its mind up about the numbers but this is going to be one hell of a warning sign for USD bulls if we don't make gains, or at least stay bid on these wages numbers. If they came pre-Dec FOMC, the buck would be 100+ pips higher now.

As I type we're hitting new highs so maybe the ball is starting to roll.

USDJPY H1 chart

We're meeting minor resistance around a trendline from Dec with further resistance at 116.75/80.

If we don't see this rally at least take and hold that area, and maybe 117.00, we could be in for a sharp reversal based again on the evidence of the PA following other data points this week.

Best in 2026

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